Trails of Cold Steel III

Discussion in 'The Legend of Heroes Series' started by Fellsmith, Dec 31, 2016.

  1. Marukoban

    Marukoban Member

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    I thought that's part of what this forum is for? To discuss about Kiseki series including its future.
    I admit I was venting a bit, but it's due to my concern as a fan of Falcom/Kiseki series.
    I'm sorry if you feel annoyed by my points (and please do let me know if I'm posting against TOS), but as a fan I'm obviously concerned the series is heading towards direction treaded by Suikoden, Wild Arms, BOF, Xenosaga, etc. Nowadays there aren't many JRPGs done in style of Falcom anymore.
    As to the other poster's motive, I'm not aware of that, nor do I think it takes away from the topic.

    Sen 1 and 2 were released in CN, KR, HK in 2014.
    I'm sure sales from those regions are quite substantial and should explain why Falcom hits record sales in 2014.
     
  2. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    What do you know? I haven't even bought Sen II, don't care about the series and wouldn't buy Sen III if released in a portable. Your problem is that you know what is not true.

    Besides, I can discuss Falcom sales and the future as much as I want. If you think it is irrelevant, why do you chime in? If you don't like the subject, ignore it or go to a another place where you determine what can be talked and what can't.

    What is obvious is that some people are in denial and are triggered when it is shown with numbers that Sen III sold a lot less than the others. If you are not worried about it, it is your problem. However, it is a conpletely different thing to get angry at people who bring numbers to show that it sold less and try to shut down the discussion just because it triggers you.

    As you said, we are all irrelevant to Falcom as individuals, so do as you say.
     
  3. Omage_X

    Omage_X Active Member

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    LOL then why the fuck are you even here ? I'm convinced your trolling at this point, the people here, have been time and time again, showing you links and facts and all you been doing is speaking out of your ass, if you don't care about the series then just leave nobody is telling you to stay lol why would you even waste your time ? nobody would even bother to listen you now, especially if you don't even like the series your talking about its waste of time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2017
  4. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    You're perfectly free to express your opinion. I was just trying to make sure you understood that several of us do not share your concerns and are thus far unconvinced by the reasoning you've been trying to use to support that concern. Falcom is a publicly traded company, they are obliged to release financial information, and that information is available for public perusal. Falcom has been noting the potential decrease in sales/revenue from dropping the Vita for quite some time now. Indeed they are required by law to report to shareholders things that can materially impact the company's finances. Along with that report shareholders expect plans and explanations of how the company would seek to mitigate that impact. All of this is publicly known information, and floofy has been kind enough to provide translations of Falcom's financial statements for several quarters now. My personal reason for not worrying is grounded in the fact that Falcom itself publicly acknowledged the revenue impact literally over a year ago, provided projections that took that impact into account, and organized the running of the company around the effects. So far Falcom's projections have proven either accurate or their actual results have overshot those projections. Assuming their accountants and managers aren't outright incompetent, they would have organized the expenditures for future game developments based on their projections, with a margin of error for safety, and the fact that they've been exceeding those projections should be an indication that they're fine as far as expected expenditures being met. Falcom's demonstrated itself to be methodical and fairly conservative in how they approach investment, so it's not like they're throwing money away left and right. Trying to look at a single game, or a single quarter, or even a single year in isolation kind of misses the point that they are a company with several things going on, all of which interact with each other, and all of which they readily talk about in their financial statements.
     
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  5. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    The only troll here is you. I can't talk about all I want. I put the numbers that you refuse to see. You are the one who speaks out of your ass, not a single statistic to back your statements, only excuses.

    If you get triggered that the truth is shown, go to a forum where you decide what can be said.
     
  6. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    If you know that, why your original argument didn't take it into account? Why didn't you discuss in length the sales, revenue and predictions for the years you compared? No, you just threw numbers devoid of context to "prove" you are right about something.
     
  7. Omage_X

    Omage_X Active Member

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    Yeah I think I should do what everyone else said, few pages ago and just ignore you since you willing to ignore the success Falcom has had with CSIII because of some strange ass agenda your trying to push.

    @zwabbit forget them their not here to talk about the LOH Franchise that's for sure, just here to start arguments for no reason.
     
  8. Hobrek

    Hobrek New Member

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    I'm sorry but what are you wanting to happen here? People are "in denial"? People saw the sales and asked if the should be concerned, and after looking over publicly released statements it appeared that Sen III sold most of what was predicted. This meant that the game wasn't a flop. Is Falcom skipping through candy land and everything is perfect? No. But is this a giant cause for concern and panic? No. So after everybody is calm you come in and start screaming for everybody to panic. Like the fact that people aren't upset has you saying they are in denial? We all know the facts now. Do you want everybody to start writing eulogies for the company and cursing the modern market? What is you angle here?
     
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  9. Omage_X

    Omage_X Active Member

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    @Hobrek @tilinelson2 said their not even fan of the series that should tell you not to waste your time anymore
     
  10. Marukoban

    Marukoban Member

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    I understood your explanation, but I feel like you glossed over some of the points I brought.
    I agree with you that there is no need for concern in short term. Falcom is still profitable and likely so. However in the long term, console market in Japan is contracting and other Asian countries are not big on console.
    In the long run, staying exclusive on PS4 is not a sustainable direction and I'd assume Falcom knows.
    The only region you can depend on PS4 is west, but we have known all along that this series is not popular and will likely never be popular in the west.
    It's even more concerning because there aren't many option outside of PS4 for Falcom to move, unlike last time from PC to PSP.

    Mind you this is similar situation faced by Suikoden and Wild Arms.
    All those classic JRPG series didn't survive transition from PS2 to PS3.
    Contracting market and when they try to establish market on another system, it failed to attract fans.
    Granted there are some mismanagement with Suikoden DS and PSP, however I believe my point still stands that lower revenue in the long run will cut budget and it's going to be a vicious cycle.
    I might be wrong about this and Falcom might just be good enough to cut corners without compromising quality.
    I just hope it won't come to a point they reuse assets across different series to get better RoI.
     
  11. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    But, they're not PS4 exclusive? I mean, the entire point of them collaborating more with western publishers, getting more of their games onto PC, both old and new, is to open up more market opportunities. If you think this approach is going to fail, you are free to think so. And with how NISA is bumbling the Ys 8 PC release, there is certainly reason for concern. But concern to the point where Falcom's long term survival is openly in doubt? That seems alarmist.
     
  12. omgfloofy

    omgfloofy Well-Known Member

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    From the fact that Falcom didn't forecast numbers as high as they were three years ago, it tells me that they were fully expecting lower sales numbers. People are expecting the game to have bombed because of its sales, but Falcom themselves has said that it's going as expected- with Ys VIII PS4 selling better than they thought it would. Source: https://www.esterior.net/2017/09/20...-kiseki-series-hitting-1-million-copies-sold/

    What would be a bomb is if the game didn't sell enough for them to make back what they spent to make it. And Falcom usually operates with a pretty high profit margin due to conservative financials and so forth.

    In the end, everything talking about their numbers is just speculation and we won't know how well the game did for them specifically until November, when they release the EOY report for 2017. But what people are constantly forgetting is that games that don't sell hundreds of thousands of copies aren't immediately failures. Falcom's threshold to consider making a sequel for Tokyo Xanadu was only 50,000 copies. Which meant not only just a success, but a big success. So their sales thresholds generally aren't that high.

    And Falcom was very much caught off guard by the insane numbers from Sen no Kiseki II three years ago. You can see it in their financial reports and their forecast adjustsments from then, as well.
     
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  13. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    I guess that what everything we're trying to say is that it's not black and white, but rather a nuanced reality.

    Yes, there is a sales loss when compared to combined PS3 & VITA, and the console's market situation in Japan is very bleak. At the same, this sale loss was taken into account and the (relatively) high shipping sale-through rate and the amount of digital sales show that the sell numbers were higher than the retailers expected (and thus Falcom, who likely projected the results based on the retailer's demands). As Floofy said, Falcom's size and financial policy means their profit margin is on par with smaller companies like Gust and CH who can make profits out of games with 20-50k sales. While Sen III is undoubtedly bigger, estimated sales should still have a very high profit for Falcom. Thus they're making the most of a bad situation (in any case, even VITA sales are dying now in Japan, so, in my opinion, if someone is to blame for their strategy is SONY, but that's opening another whole can of worms).

    We're also forgetting Asia (without Japan), who is slowly becoming the main market for Falcom's Kiseki series. In fact, the copies sold there will likely surpass Sen III's current ones. Without knowing the spread of portable/console there it's very hard to predict how the shift to PS4 will affect there; for all we know maybe it's an enormous success there and we need not to worry about the future.

    And there's also the PC ports, like @zwabbit mentioned, and maybe even the Switch if it doesn't peter out (yes, Falcom's current relationship with Sony makes it unlikely in the near future, but Falcom also had a close relation with XSEED and look how that went; companies won't let friendhsips stay in the way of profits).
     
  14. Lisa Eves

    Lisa Eves Member

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    how utterly inane.

    anyway, how's cold steel III going for you guys? it's been a while since we've heard impressions in this thread, and i'm iffy about checking elsewhere atm, because, well, spoilers. :S
     
  15. DarkFusion

    DarkFusion Member

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    Okay, been gone a little while, but came back after I found out Cold Steel 3 came out (mixed its release date up with Tokyo Xanadu X+'s english release). Anyway I have a couple questions, first do we get to use our mech more than in CS2 and does the Suikoden-ish character recruiting make a return in some form?
     
  16. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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    i haven't even played it but by story and world building it is already amongst my favourites
     
  17. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    Who said that the game was a flop or people should start writing Eulogies for the company? I just chimed in to correct the false information, like Famitsu counts digital, the numbers for Sen III first week were from less days than the others, that digital sales in Japan are like digital sales in US, that 80% sell-through is an uncommon result for single player JRPGs.

    I also presented the numbers for other Sen games, showing that Sen III dropped 35% from Sen II, and stated the fact that Sen III is suffering from the same problem other publishers traditionally linked with PlayStation platforms as they decided to leave the handheld market and go to PS4 only (which is not even selling that well in Japan).

    Then there are people denying that sales for Sen III are lower than the others, and say that public available numbers are invented, and throw in numbers without context to argue that it was a great result. But the problem for is you is the person that brings the numbers and says the obvious, that losing 30% of the audience of the biggest seller is not a positive thing for any company.

    But who cares? You think that people who calls the other fanboys, trolls, and keep kicking and screaming to numbers are perfectly fine and people who say that losing 30% of the audience is negative and it is something to worry about in the coming years if it keeps falling are the wrong ones.
     
  18. Ironbrood

    Ironbrood Member

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    I agree. Also, it made me understand and sympathize with Comrade G a little more. I'm not sure what it reveals about my sanity but I made this:

    [​IMG]

    Gideon's last day as a teacher, at a time when he was younger and wilder. :p
     
  19. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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    eeeeeeeehm go read back because the main argument is that you are trying to insist that Falcom cannot ever agree that these sales are decent whatsoever because them being lower than the other sen games despite breaking 100K and a platform switch for a third game in a series entry point. Nobody is denying the sales are lower at all.
     
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  20. Omage_X

    Omage_X Active Member

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    its a waste of time my friend this person said they don't even like the franchise, so their purpose being here is to just stir shit up.
     
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