Trails of Cold Steel III

Discussion in 'The Legend of Heroes Series' started by Fellsmith, Dec 31, 2016.

  1. DrawnofSpade

    DrawnofSpade New Member

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    Honestly i'm gonna just jump into this hot water for a bit and provide a bit of perspective, because largely the posts on this thread i've seen clearly shows alot of people are talking about directions without ever even lived or visited Japan.

    Here is one to people who are wondering "hmmmm... why are they still developing for handheld etc...":
    <Background>
    Currently the upper echelon of the rich Japan corporate is very very nil, while most people do not have the dispensable cash to make "casual" transition from handheld to PS4 simply because of the cost. Plenty of the adult working class lives on a ~500USD equivalent budget per month.... that includes rent, while living on conveni bentos and foods (where do you think Hawaii got that culture from?) and live very far from the Tokyo city in Yokohama, Setagaya, Chiba, and as far as Okegawa in Saitama. These are the majority "market" or potential buyer population with purchasing power and the interest to do so... etc etc.
    <Market>
    If you have lived in Japan, or just Tokyo area, for at least a month you'll be very sure to know that most people play games during their "off" time riding the train for ~hour or so to and from work on their smartphones. This is why the mobile games are immensely popular, the current popular trend there is the co-op jrpg and co-op idol games on mobile. Just the fact that the culture/living space/life in general are completely different and do not favor the sit down play games for hours on a long story, they get that stimulation from LNs and WNs... on their smartphone. Oh and their arcades still is a force to be reckoned with in the Japan gaming industry, as it influences a lot of their fundamental game-play decisions in the development for many companies.
    <Competition>
    I think alot of people do mention about sales and money be the a critical factor in their decision making which is completely true, i've addressed this in another thread that one of the reasons they have Chinese import faster than western or ww import is because they pay premium price for the license.
    scary real life example:
    Similar to the housing market in California West Oakland where you are going to a open house and bidding on a 900k USD 2000 sq. ft.(~185 sq m) house with mortgage, and mainland Chinese couple in their early 20s comes in... and in 13 days of bidding war...out bids the house at 1.9mil... with cash.
    TL;DR: China has a lot of money for Japan gaming industry to cater more to that market.
     
  2. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    478
    That's simply the Japanese videogame console market shrinking, which is a fact that has been known for 10 years. There are a lot of traditional Japanese centric franchises that had to become Western (or Asia) centric due to that, and that's the reason why localization has been so en vogue this last 5 years even for things that would have looked impossible in the early 2000s (if you told anyone that Gal Gun would be localized in the west...).

    Famitsu sales are out too. They talk about 104k, which likely includes digital (unlike Media Creates). Shipping rate seems to be around 80-100 %, so the bottleneck was the retailers. The percentage of digital seems unusually strong, but if it really sold out and given the tremendous hype surrounding Sen III it's not that abnormal.
     
  3. DrawnofSpade

    DrawnofSpade New Member

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    14
    Japanese videogame market is not shrinking, Japanese console market isn't shrinking either... the console sales are not abandoned, the industry is just pivoting. Which is my point regarding to the nature, or the genre, of the game most of the developer does these days. I apologize if i confused you with what i was stating, my whole point is that the traditional J-RPG market is shrinking for good reasons, and so are the games that belong to that genre. The new CO-OP Jrpg genre is slowly replacing it along with arena versus games(no not talking about MMOA games). Thankfully Falcom and XSEED still allows us to enjoy great traditional JRPG games.

    <extra>
    The popular games that many people currently play across most of prefectures are arena versus games, many which you probably never even heard of the title or the series but they are insanely popular and available across Arcade and Console to link up for quick battle, think of it as equivalent of super smash bro 2min matches. That's where the game-scene interest is mostly at, trails type of medium length jrpg is lucky to have survived. Whenever i couldn't go to my friend's place to play console versus games last year, i'd just hit up Taito with my B-pass and nesica.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2017
  4. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    Ban me plz
    It is not what matters. Companies try to be predictable and make realistic predictions. The fact that they acknowledge the profit reduction doesn't mean it is fine and it is an issue if the games start to sell less and less.

    Famitsu sales don't include digital, they include physical cards for digital downloads, something that only exist for a few blockbuster titles. There are monthly digital estimates by Famitsu, which are released later, but it is made through polls and not considered to be very accurate. Usually digital sales are estimated between 10% and 15% of physical for newer consoles and handhelds. The big difference between Media Create and Famitsu is something that sometimes happen, and one of the trackers usually adjusts their numbers later (usually Famitsu does that).

    80%-100% sellthrough is what is expected for JRPGs, which are games frontloaded and usually sell 70% or more of their lifetime sales in the first week. The retailers in Japan cannot return unsold copies, so they usually order only what they think they can sell. The game is not sold out, and if you look at Amazon.jp, it is being sold at 22% discount, which is a bit higher than the default discount (18-20%). It means that the game is selling according to the expectations (no tremendous hype either).
     
  5. Jack Slade

    Jack Slade New Member

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    14
    Next week, we will see the second week sales drop off. Certainly, it could be steep.

    What does need mentioning, is whether sales met Falcoms expectation. Sure, they would love if it sold beyond what they want, but even if it didn't, meeting their original sales can't be a complete loss, if they expected. Anyhow, doesn't seem to be anything like a flop.

    But even suppose they manage to retain the same amount of fans, with a Cold Steel 4 can't say I see that attracting a new audience, if anything it might cause even less sales.
    It doesn't seem likely they branch out over to the Switch. And Western Sales... Who knows how long they'll take for a release of CS3 and 4. And I'd be surprised if Trails ever escape the niche audience here. If sales numbers end up falling lower than wanted, what then? Wonder if they hold off on releasing CS4 in the near future?

    Guess we find out for sure, come their financial report.
     
  6. Trails of Persona

    Trails of Persona Active Member

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    327
    Wait, there's going to be a Cold Steel 4? I thought this was the last of the Cold Steel games, and the 4th game was talked about if it was needed if the team felt they couldn't finish everything in 3.
     
  7. KamikazeK-

    KamikazeK- Member

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    69
    That's what everyone thought, but I guess Falcom decided they didn't want to make all those assets just for one game, so now we get to pay full price twice. YAY!
     
  8. Trails of Persona

    Trails of Persona Active Member

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    327
    Not sure how I feel about that. Of course, can't give a solid judgement until I play the game, but I feel like this game should close out the chapter, and we can move to another country with new settings. I know Erebonia is a huge country, but I feel that 3 games is enough to cover everything they needed to. In the end, I trust Falcom enough at this time that it will all work out in the end.
     
  9. Ringwraith

    Ringwraith Well-Known Member

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    1,890
    Implying that writing and voice acting doesn't also make up a significant chunk of stuff, amongst other things.
     
  10. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    478
    Okay, you're right in almost everything, I found about Famitsu's first week policy later (Famitsu usually puts digital sales in their end of the month report), but this is just false. Most games in Japan are very frontloaded, but if you look at releases at every week shipping rates around 80% are exceptional and show strong interest or extremely niche market. Dragon Quest XI had 76%, FFXV had 60%, Bravely Second had 54%, Nioh had 90% , Fire Emblem warriors had around 50% and Mary Skelter had around 70%. There's tremendous variety depending on the game and moment.

    And of course it's never going to be completely sold out, especially in giants like Amazon. Pretending that a 4-2% is going to be significant in any way it's just petty.
     
  11. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    Ban me plz
    There are many games that are sold out on Amazon.jp, and when that happens, the discount usually becomes smaller than the standard. A good sign that the game is sold out, besides not having general availability, is that the discounts become smaller. A good sign that the game didn't sell well is that the discounts raise, like for example FFVX, when the discounts quickly raised to 40%.

    By the way, FFXV and Bravery Second are good examples of games that sold under the retailer expectations, that is why the sell-through was lower. 80%-100% sell-through is the expected from games that are that frontloaded and that don't sell badly. Usually sold-out games sell more than 90% in the first week, and they become sold out in most online stores, which is not Trails case.
    There are not-so frontloaded games that have lower sell-throughs, but these games are known.

    By the way, for Sen II:

    Media Create
    02./00. [PSV] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} - 86.283 / NEW
    05./00. [PS3] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} - 65.498 / NEW

    Famitsu
    02./00. [PSV] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} - 98.161 / NEW <80-100%>
    03./00. [PS3] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} - 71.069 / NEW <80-100%>

    Dengeki
    2-Vita Legend of Heroes Legend of Flash II Japan Falcom 14/09/25 87,040
    4-PS3 Legend of Heroes Legend of Flash II Japan Falcom 14/09/25 69, 167
     
  12. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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    648
    oh there still is a lot of things to discuss for sen4, it's unfortunate that it's existence got posted here
     
  13. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    740
    Location:
    Leman
    I'm not sure what all this handwringing over sales numbers and portable version is meant to accomplish, unless one's trying to make an explicit argument that Falcom would fail as a company due to these numbers? I mean, okay, the numbers are lower. Falcom isn't blind, they can do the sums and they have much better statistics than we do. That they executed their present strategy is indicative of them accepting the risk involved, which includes any decreased projection in sales. So unless Falcom was being outright mismanaged, its leadership would have to believe that that level of revenue would still be sufficient to keep the company going as a profitable business. Whether any of us sees a way for that to be the case is kind of moot since we don't have access to their internal numbers and we aren't the decision makers at the company. The extent of our direct influence is whether we personally continue to buy games from them, and for the foreseeable future I personally am still part of their target market, since I as a consumer have both the disposable income to have a PS4 and also buy PS4 games that interest me. Or PC games as they make ports available.
     
    uyjulian, Marx-93, Moxx and 2 others like this.
  14. Shed

    Shed Member

    Messages:
    32
    Location:
    Chicago
    Yeah, this^

    I don't personally see the value of all this theorizing and arguing over what the sales mean for the company, when 1) We don't have all the information and 2) Falcom has already said they're pleased with the results. Lets let Falcom worry about the sales, and we can do the two things that can help them out: Buy their games, and talk about them more to others so that they can buy them too.

    As long as Falcom is performing at least within their own projections, and as long as they're still making products with the same or better quality (which, with Ys VIII and Sen III, they're definitely not lowering the bar on quality, if anything they're raising it) then they'll be just fine.

    That being said, to add to the discussion on the actual game itself, I'm having a blast. Partway through Chapter 1 and it's already delivering on just about every level, and I can't even read 99% of it! Picking up on context clues, proper nouns, and the tiny bit of Japanese I already know helps a bit to get the general gist of what's going on, but I hope that sometime in the not-too-distant future I'll be able to pick up on more of it, either through an excellent XSEED localization, or kicking myself in the rear and studying more runes :p
     
  15. ZeRakun

    ZeRakun Member

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    192
    Location:
    France
    Speaking of sales, I'm kinda tempted to import...

    But I don't own a PS4, and my level of Japanese is years below what is sufficient to appreciate kiseki.
    Please send help :p ?

    (on the plus side I guess I started learning Japanese)
     
  16. Omage_X

    Omage_X Active Member

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    664
  17. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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    648
    b ut my vita collecting dust and hey the swiitch is a perfect system for everything i need switch support!!
    all i can think with switch talk is that vita babies moved on to switch for their begging
     
  18. tilinelson2

    tilinelson2 Active Member

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    Ban me plz
    Yes, a fanboy on Twitter writes something and these are facts. Did you see that Sen II sold 170k in the first week? These are facts you choose to ignore just to pretend you are right about something you are obviously wrong.
     
  19. Ringwraith

    Ringwraith Well-Known Member

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    1,890
    Although entirely just from the setup, I wouldn't be surprised with it being another Cold Steel I/II situation, having two halves of the same story, as just from knowing the outline of moving to another school start seems like it's trying to have another bite at the apple.
    It even calls itself a "new" tale from the Erebonian Empire in its role call opening.

    It's not exactly a jumping-on point, but it has wound everything back in intensity for its start as the pertinent conflicts of the previous two have ended.
     
  20. DrawnofSpade

    DrawnofSpade New Member

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    14
    I would support them splitting the second part into cold steel 3+4 and paying little extra, on the premise that the quality and content is consistent and mildly improved upon each installment. Though reeeally i'll probably buy it anyways just like when i bought Ar Tonelico installments when no one touched it sitting there collecting dust.
    Japan's local market just isn't going to be enough to support JRPG like trails anymore, which is why they shift their focus to Chinese and western market now with their decision on moving to PS4.

    Hmmm here is wishing that they connect gagharv through Another World if AW is Zemuria....:p
     

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