Trails of Cold Steel III

Discussion in 'The Legend of Heroes Series' started by Fellsmith, Dec 31, 2016.

  1. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    Rean being a teacher to preserve the wonder that is class 7 is believable. except he is generally pretty crap at preserving the other important things in his life like his family relations. It's a good thing Altina is there to be a student since he generally gets his epiphany moments from barely pubescent girls. Maybe she'll give him the lightbulb moment to re-control his ogre power again. I'm just giving him a hard time though. I actually look forward to seeing a teacher student relationship with an a character who was super late boss material. I actually like her as a character too, probably because the voice acting, I'm a sucker for super-soft voices.

    As for the Vander thing, I'm honestly surprised Osborne even has the authority to do that, not to mention I don't ever see the Vanders ever acting in that regard other than between Mueller and Oliver, and that seems more like a half voluntary kinda thing. I can't help but wonder why doesn't Mueller just 'retire' and be personally hired by Oliver as a bodyguard?

    I'm also wonder wtf is going to be up with Rakshasa general girl and Nord General guy. If the Noble alliance is effectively defunct now, are they supporting Osborne now? I doubt it, but I can't imagine what they would be up to exactly. I also wonder if they have any sort of remorse for supporting the duke in the first place when he's probably an obvious sleezebag to everyone now, not just the player.

    Last they said that they are more strict and military-oriented at thors BECAUSE of a royal student there now. Did I read that wrong? Seems like a weak excuse to me since Oliver was a student too and they didn't decide to do whatever to thors then. Does he not count because he's not a 'true' heir or something? Kinda doubt that would be the case since he gets a Mueller to guard him while the other 2 children get nothing.
     
  2. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    Zwabbit, you kinda missed part of my point with the IBC: Mira is an international currency, which means the overall amount of currency in the economy hasn't changed. Any surplus by Erebonia can thus simply be used in imports (or maybe more importantly; debts): because the currency has intrinsic value even if the countries tried to clamp on trade then smugglers will still hop on it because an Erebonian mira is as valuable as a Liberian or Calvardian one. This way the natural flow will balance itself; this is also the reason why European countries in the euro don't have "regional inflation" despite that the amount of money printed and the economy of each one is different. Trade naturally balances it off by making exports harder and imports easier. Recovering the case of the Spanish gold; while Castille suffered a generous inflation, the Spanish gold still was valuable on Italy and Netherlands, where countless mercenaries were paid by it, and even in the Spanish coasts (not to mention the Netherlands and the Italian possessions) the problem wasn't there because trade with the rest of the Mediterranean naturally minimizes it. In a much more communicated world trade naturally balances the value of any commodity, same as we have much more samey price for oil, iron, and most prime materials even though each country produces them differently. Of course, that was why I maintained that completely stopping trade or not would be the key.

    For the rest, almost completely agree: an arms race is naturally unsustainable. I would however point out that Erebonia is likely able to use the IBC's assets as hostage for the smaller countries like Liberl and Remiferia in issues like the trade affair or International diplomacy. They likely also depend on Erebonia for some prime materials. This might the main reason why there has been no war until now: Calvard alone hasn't had much luck by themselves. I again want to stress though that we very much lack complete context on everything; maybe the border skirmishes were actually major battles and Calvard suffered a decisive defeat that didn't let them go on offensive? Maybe Calvard elite forces simply took too much damage against the aions (they lost at least an entire airborne division) and they don't trust their regular forces? Maybe they simply didn't want to take on Erebonia until they have Soldats of their own (a pretty good reason IMO)? And again, we don't have enough context to judge if that constraint is natural; Calvard and Erebonia had an almost constant warfare for Crossbell until 70 years ago. For all we know other nations have had their equivalent to the Congress of Vienna since then (which seems actually very likely, given that in the Hundred Days war an alliance was made by several nations against Erebonia, and Osborne took care that all their expansion was "legal", even arguably Crossbell)? We also don't know of no earlier wars than the Hundred Days war, but that doesn't mean they don't exist and that they weren't big, especially in East Zemuria.

    I laughed more at that than I should have.

    Osborne probably doesn't have the power to directly do that, but both the Emperor and Cedric admire him and think he is a great guy (best judges of character ever). It was probably pretty easy for him to make a point that "to modernize the country, we need also to modernize the protocol, blablabla a personal escort based on a military family is something of the past, blablabla a military family based on nepotism looks too familiar to the nobility blablabla".

    Aurelia was only fighting in search of glory, so for all we know maybe Osborne simply promised her that he would give her a post in the frontlines of the Northern War for North Ambria. It's however hinted that the nobles are regrouping, and in fact I think this second branch of Thors is part of it; everything fits too nicely (recovering old members of Thors as students, their new position in Western Erebonia, etc) and it would make sense for the nobles to ally with the Third Way against Osborne after their defeat. It would also make a nice irony.

    I think that bit about Cedric is a mistranslation. Unless Osborne took that Cedric was going to go there as an excuse for all the changes in order to improve his education (Cedric is the crown prince, so he is far more important than Olivier). But that seems a fairly weak excuse even for Osborne.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
  3. Yotaka

    Yotaka Well-Known Member

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    To add to the above
    Mueller is still an officer in the Imperial Army and a part of one of its armored divisions even if he spends time on special assignment, he's probably still got time to serve before he can resign from his duties. Okay, he could probably get himself discharged pretty easily but that wouldn't do the family name any good now, would it?

    The last Imperial Chronicle issue in CS2 mentions that Ordis was still holding out; there's a reasonable chance Aurelia was involved with that. Though Wallace was serving the Hyarms and they laid down their arms so he probably went along with his boss. But we really don't know. Like Marx-93 said, it's entirely possible both of them did transfer their loyalty to Osborne for one reason or another. It's equally obvious that they're being set up to play a bigger role in CS3.

    Olivier does indeed 'not count' and yeah, the Japanese text does imply that Thors changed because Cedric began attending. It helps to remember that while Olivier has a certain measure of popular support, he doesn't have any political authority on his own and it wouldn't be all that hard for Osborne to get him booted from his position under the circumstances at the end of CS2 when he's at the height of his own power. That Olivier vanished to go investigate the mystery of Testa-Rossa doesn't help either.
     
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  4. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    I find the notion that international trade in the post-CS2 environment is still smoothly operating to be extremely dubious. Even if smuggling picks up some of the slack due to demand, it will only pick up once the potential profit rises to justify the risks, which means increased prices, which then feeds into inflation in the Empire. What trade is left, unless all of the other nations decide to just surrender to Erebonia outright, is not going to be able to "balance" out the sudden infusion of cash that Erebonia just picked up, most of it is going to be feeding into the internal Erebonia economy with all the consequences that entails. Any debts that are settled will by virtue have to be internal debts, which still keeps the money inside the country. If your argument is that the other nations will allow themselves to be blackmailed into becoming Erebonian puppets, then sure, Erebonia will come out fine. If they don't however, we're back to the economic problems I've mentioned previously with the money having nowhere else to go, causing inflation inside Erebonia and a currency crisis in the other nations. And if the other nations decide to actually stand their ground against Erebonia, they would have to make that decision writing off any assets of theirs held by the IBC and write off the IBC as a conduit for future transactions outright. The consequence of that will be pretty much to cut Erebonia off from international finance in general. If Osborne's intent is to basically conquer the entire continent, not much of a problem. Anything short of that however is going to see Erebonia become a pariah state if it continues down the current path.

    An international currency does not just work in a vacuum. It requires something backing it and administrating it. Unless we're supposed to believe that each country prints mira on their own and everyone just trusts that they have enough sepith to actually back up what they print. The level of coordination and cooperation necessary to make that sort of system work cannot possibly function in the post-CS2 world, at least where Erebonia is involved, simply because none of the other nations are going to trust the Empire. And even if it really is each nation prints their own version of mira backed by their own sepith, that actually offers an opportunity for those nations to literally invalidate all of the currency that Erebonia seized by systematically demonetizing the notes that Erebonia has. Painful, yes, but possible.

    How would the second branch of Thors possibly be used as a rallying point for the Third Way or the nobility? Isn't it as much under Osborne's control as the original Thors? And does anyone actually expect Rean to be able to pull a fast one on the chancellor?

    The idea that Olivier doesn't have political power also doesn't make sense. If prior to the civil war he had a good chunk of the army supporting him, how does that not translate into direct political power? At this point in Erebonia it's pretty clear that the only power that does matter is military might, so even if Olivier didn't have the majority of the army, he should still have had enough that he could have told Osborne to pound sand. And no, the emperor's support for Osborne doesn't explain that, as if that support was so unconditional Olivier shouldn't have had any support from the army to begin with.
     
  5. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    So you guys think Cedric and the Emperor STILL have great respect for Osborne? They aren't a little bit cautious that Osborne set up the whole civil war thing, and allowed both the children to be used by cayenne as bait and propaganda? He could get oliver 'booted' when Oliver's 'card' (class 7) literally saved Cedric's life at the end, while Osborne was just chilling in the background, not even lifting a finger when Cedric was punted in testa-rossa because doing so would prevent the dukes reveal at being some kind of false-emperor offspring+copycat.

    I dunno, I just kinda assumed that the Emperor (and Cedric, and Alfin) would KINDA think Oliver has a point about him by this point. I mean not even Claire seems to blindly trust Osborne so much at this point.

    Having leftovers of the noble alliance 'ally' with thors 2.0 would be pretty delicious though I agree. It would be also interesting that Rufus would likely be a semi-antagonist yet again if that were the case.
     
  6. Aliseyun

    Aliseyun Member

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    At this point he probably doesn't even need the Emperor's support. His control over the gov't and the military is so strong that he could launch a coup if he wanted.
     
  7. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    That's how I interpreted/predicted CS3 to be, but respect/trust in him was mentioned in the present tense so err. I just find that surprising if people think that's still going to be there in CS3.
     
  8. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    Solid portrayal of geopolitics is not what you play Kiseki for. It's a common issue with a lot of works from Japan. For the most part the characters make up for it, at least they did in the Sky trilogy and the Crossbell duology seemed to also do a pretty good job. Steel's characters haven't been quite strong enough to carry it, especially when the bad geopolitics results in the characters doing really, really stupid things.
     
  9. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    You've been going on about that argument for a few months now, and I don't get involved because you have understanding of crossbell and I do not, and I can't argue the case better than someone who does. But I disagree. I think Kiseki has political elements done better than the vast majority of other games out there that I can think of, and not just Japanese. Many times the people who engage in debating this topic with you point out the reasons for certain things that you seem to overlook.

    Frankly, yes I agree it would be 'really stupid' for the emperor and Cedric to have great trust in Osborne once cs3 starts, which is why I think they will not, and am surprised some people may think that they will...And even then it would be understandable if Cedric does still since he's young and is kinda portrayed as the less sharp child amongst oliver and Alfin (but is thoughtful enough to be self-aware of this in hopes to improve himself for the country). But generally, I think there are a lot of things that are quite understandable from a 'realistic' point of view.
     
  10. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    Care to list any points that I seemingly overlook that I don't have a counterargument for? Beyond "we don't know enough" that is.
     
  11. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    Nope, I said I don't get involved for a reason, and I was very deliberate about using the word 'seem'. Similarlily you commented that they are bad at portraying politics without giving any examples either, which I didn't ask for because my point was you've been crusading that for awhile now, which is fine if that's your opinion, but maybe you should make your own thread about it or something rather than insert it into many other threads.

    I'm sorry if I sound harsh or something, I don't mean it that way just that I'm not convinced of your point, and you bringing up more isn't convincing me any more, and I'm pretty sure others feel that way too. I'm not saying you ARE wrong, but I do read what you say each time and it isn't doing any more convincing.
     
  12. Lisa Eves

    Lisa Eves Member

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    actually, politics (large scale or otherwise) is *precisely* why i play the trails games, and i haven't played anything even remotely close to their depth or intelligence (even if they're not entirely "realistic"), except perhaps harebrained schemes' shadowrun games, particularly dragonfall, which is political in a rather different sense. it's something i'm very interested in, so i'm genuinely interested in any suggestions you might have. unfortunately, i find that video games are incredibly poor when it comes to writing.
     
  13. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    A couple off the top of my head, it's late and I intend to get to sleep at a reasonable time tonight.

    1) The currency issue that is the most "recent" thing. Marx's claim is that Erebonia will be able to make use of the funds they seized without overheating their economy and causing an inflation spike because mira is internationally accepted and so they can use the money to trade with their neighbors. My counterpoint is to question how willing the other nations would be to continue trade with an actively aggressive nation, especially when that nation is basically using money that belonged to those other nations in the first place before Erebonia seized the IBC. Calvard is close to outright war with the Empire, Leman would take issue with the Bracer Guild being harassed and the interference in Crossbell due to their projects there, Arteria is likely extremely peeved about North Ambria, and Liberl has experienced Erebonian aggression twice in living memory. My other counterpoint was questioning just how stable the mira could be in this sort of political climate, since as an international currency you would expect a certain degree of cooperation and coordination to standardize it. If that cooperation is gone, then we're talking a potential currency crisis here. Marx's counterclaim to this was to state that the mira is backed by hard assets, septium specifically. That doesn't really solve the liquidity issue, it just produces variations of the problem. If the IBC was actually holding large reserves of septium to back the paper currency, Erebonia needs to be able to spend those reserves for it to be useful, re the trade issue above. If all the IBC had were paper assets, then Erebonia has a whole lot of paper assets that they don't have the hard assets to actually back, which introduces a confidence issue in any mira coming out of Erebonia even assuming international commerce did not drop like a stone due to the warming cold war. There's also the interesting note that Liberl exports orbments to Erebonia. Hmmmmm...............

    2) The Erebonian Civil War was in general too clean in its portrayal. Warfare with WWII-era weapons, which is what Zemuria seems to possess, by default cause far more fatalities than was shown. To be "winning" the civil war the provincial guards had to have been actively engaging the imperial army, and just random chance would dictate people dying in every battle. There was also talk of a lot of people feeling regions of Erebonia because of fighting. If the fighting is severe enough to prompt migration of that scale, it's well beyond just minor skirmishes. Then there was the sacking of Celdric. No way only a single person died from that, stray bullets if nothing else should have claimed more lives than just Otto. Note that this one can be handwaved due to the rating of the game, but the ramifications should still be evident, and for the most part it's not. The Erebonian military, both imperial and provincial, should have seen considerable wear and tear after even just a few months of fighting. We see no hint of any sort of strain in the story or the background material present in the games.

    3) Mismatch between the level of "aggression" between the great powers. The conditions in Zemuria right now are very reminiscent of pre-WWI Europe, with Erebonia as Germany and Calvard as France/UK. Then we have a bunch of other smaller countries that are the Belgiums, Netherlands, etc. Crossbell is a central flashpoint between Erebonia and Calvard, which for a time was mediated by Liberl's non-aggression pact. That pact pretty much went out the window as a result of the events of Ao/Zero and Erebonia moved to annex it. Calvard's reaction was, instead of declaring open war on Erebonia outright, to simply skirmish along the Calvard/Crossbell border to try to retake just the city. That shows a level of restraint that is unusual for this type of setting, Europe pre-WWI was a powder keg of suspicion and nationalistic hostility. Europe post-WWII (but not post-WWI) demonstrated the restraint necessary to avoid a WWIII occurring, but that was primarily because the devastation that the continent suffered was bad enough that its political leaderships actually started finding war unpalatable. Zemuria has never experienced that level of trauma because it has never experienced a continent-wide industrialized war, and of the major powers Calvard is the only one that as far as we know has not seen modern warfare take place on its soil. Whereas Erebonia, which just came out of a civil war where several regions saw heavy fighting, is somehow less restrained about acts of aggression that could see the rest of the continent unite against it. Granted counting on rationality or trying to predict how people react is generally a fool's errand, but on a macro level there are patterns that are generally identifiable. When you deviate from them, you raise questions, like why there isn't open war between Calvard and Erebonia already. And no, the panzer soldats are not some sort of wonder weapon that would cause any competent military to decline to engage, even the Erebonian military had already figured out how to deal with the things with their regular tanks. And Calvard is noted as having the advantage in air power, which anyone that has studied WWII can tell you is far more likely to be a decisive factor in the types of battles that take place in the Kiseki-verse than a bunch of knightmare frames/I mean panzer soldats.
     
  14. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Active Member

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    Lisa eves was asking for suggestions pointing towards games t hat you consider to have good/strong political elements. But I'll give you half-assed retorts to your 3 things just cuz I think I'll be giving you a perspective you haven't seen before.

    1: I'm not a currency expert, and I think most players aren't, and I doubt you are too, and even if you were, you would certainly not expect everyone else to be.

    2: This isn't a dig towards politics being weak in the game, but basically you complaining it's not 'dark' enough. In case you haven't noticed, kiseki is set in a 'idealistic' fictional world, which affects more than just its politics alone. this is called artistic...uhh. artistic... I forget, I think you know what I mean though. Basically it can be unrealistic in a way to focus on other things. Now as I said, this isn't specific to kiseki's politics only, so it's not that political realism is sacrificed for the story or whatever, but rather life/death/poverty/starvation/everything that sucks realism was overlooked for the 'style' of the setting... I think this is a good decision because if things were more realistic, more morose, darker, more jaded... the players wouldn't have as much investment/love towards not only the cast, but the things the cast hold dear.

    3: Sadly, WW1 knowledge IRL is limited, but even if it wasn't, I wouldn't really be so quick to compare Calvard to ANYTHING in particular because I think everyone knows little about it still (or did 3rd/crossbell really have that much content? I dunno). That said... Calvard actually made the first act of war against Erebonia, not the other way around... Remember they helped the noble alliance invade nord and capture the tower? You think war is something that should have been declared officially, which is exactly what osborne was about to do in CS1, but obviously couldn't follow t hrough with that action because like.. he was playing dead, despite this, Calvard invaded nord anyway (though I don't know why they would decide to let the noble alliance have it after with no supervision). I'm not saying you're wrong or have no point here, but Calvard is something that is too unknown for us to really judge things by. We need all the facts before we can determine such things, and we don't have them.

    I'm not trying to convince you you're wrong, but I'm trying to convince you that you can't convince people with such arguments.
     
  15. omgfloofy

    omgfloofy Well-Known Member

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    Small bits are brought up in 3rd, small bits in Zero/Ao. We don't even know what kind of characters we'd be playing in Calvard as of this point. We know Calvard is having major immigration problems and stuff, and the president has a special forces group. In SC Kevin mentions a machine similar to the Reverie was in Calvard, but doesn't detail it... But really beyond that? Not that I can think of. Yotaka can probably add more, but we know very little.
     
  16. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    Honestly, I've discussed with zwabbit about geopolitics four or five times, and we always end up reaching an impasse. However, I think that simply saying that Kiseki "gets it wrong" is false: in this case that is your opinion, but just like it seems I have failed to convince you you have likewise failed to convince me and some other people. You're completely free to have it, but if you try to push it as "objective" then, sincerely, you're mistaken.

    In a short answer; mira has intrinsic value, which means it does not need an organization to regulate it because its value its directly redeemed by its own self, not by a agency of the government. As the number of mira in the continent hasn't increased, like it did with the Spanish gold, then as long as trade continues then the value shoudl remain stable, just like modern commodities like iron, oil, etc. Your counterpoint is that everyone is at war with Erebonia and trade is destroyed. That however ignores though that we've had a time skip of 1.5 years and there has been no mention of war. You can't predict the political climate of a continent with a vacuum of one and a half year, that's outright silly. The fact that there's been no war you put as another failure, but it can simply be explained together with why there is likely no inflation in Erebonia. Erebonia used the IBC assets and the likely huge number of prime materials it has in order to force the minor countries to peace, and so that leaves Calvard alone, which it's likely unable to take on Erebonia by itself, and so trade relations can flourish (not to mention honestly countries like Liberl and Remiferia prefer peace to war; they'll protest diplomatically against the occupation of Crossbell, sure, but an all out war could wipe them out in a month, and self-preservation always trumps against long-term fears). Not to mention comparing Zemuria to pre-WWI ignores all the underlying complexity and references: Erebonia last foray into war was decisive defeat, so they're not overly bold like Germany, likewise Calvard didn't suffer an humiliating defeat like France and it's searching for revenge (and like Ghaleon says, we simply don't know enough about Calvard to even compare it to anything). Liberl had a war on its soil that devastated it, so it's a lot more similar to Belgium in WWII than in WWI. There aren't even any colonies, which were the major linchpin of WWI. A direct comparison is again, outright silly: what we can do is infer things based on context, but again, we're missing the context. Even if you dislike that there's no answer, you can simply say whatever and say it must be true because it can be constructed from the base of the tiniest hints you find. A crack theory is fine; pushing something as unrealistic because it doesn't fit your long construction based on your own assumptions is not.

    And after all of this, you'll likely find another counterpoint to that (or protest that X it's not treated realistically), one in which I'll likely disagree, and we'll continue ad infinitum, so forgive me if I want to save it, unless something more interesting happens.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2017
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  17. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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  18. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    Errr, what? Was it ever stated in the games that Calvard invaded Nord in support of the Noble Alliance? I thought the explanation was that Calvard was allowing the Alliance transit access, which allowed them to flank Zechs. Which at the time of the fighting considering which side held Heimdallr could be passed off as Calvard helping the 'legitimate' government of Erebonia deal with rebels. If Calvard had actually invaded, Zechs would have been boned considering his line of supply was cut and the Republic could have deployed far heavier forces since they have a major army base right across the border.

    When did I say everyone was at war with Erebonia? I said Calvard was engaged in open hostilities and every other nation has reason to treat it with distrust and dislike. Calvard, as the other large power on the continent, represents probably the largest single market that Erebonia could buy/sell from, and now it's cut off. Liberl is probably the second largest, and it has its own reasons for not wanting to support Erebonia's continued rise, so even if it does not want a war to break out, to suggest that relations would go on as usual seems unjustifiable, especially considering Liberl's leadership has seen that its diplomatic tact does not work with Erebonia. What I have stated in the past was that I am surprised that there isn't war, because the amount of restraint shown is at odds with the collective sentiment at similar points in time of real history.

    Where is the proof that mira has intrinsic value in and of itself? Is the actual currency just coins made of septium itself or gold or some other precious metal already? Cause that's literally the only way for mira, the currency, to have "intrinsic" value when the default for paper currency in history was that by itself the currency had no such value. Otherwise if it is an asset backed currency like the gold backed currency of ages old as you (Marx) suggested, possessing of lots and lots of mira paper money is worthless if you don't have the assets if someone asks to redeem it. Even if the IBC held lots of septium reserves which allowed Erebonia to issue more mira that was actually backed by those reserves, how much would people trust mira coming out of Erebonia if they suspect trying to redeem their septium value would be a nontrivial exercise if not outright impossible? A currency's strength lies in how trusted it is. If you can't trust that currency, its usage as a medium of exchange is crippled.
     
  19. Yotaka

    Yotaka Well-Known Member

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    Someone just asked what's happening in Calvard during 1204 on the Gamefaqs board for CS2 so I'll copypaste what I wrote there.
    And following up that, my suspicion regarding who we'll be playing as:
    Members of the Rocksmith Agency. If your reaction is 'Who?!' then don't be alarmed, they weren't even formed until The 3rd and are only mentioned once in the Cold Steel games so far, in Gambler Jack II. They're a private intelligence/security service reporting directly to the office of the President and for various reasons make a natural protagonist group.
     
  20. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    So, it seems Falcom has updated their Sen III page. Everything was already revealed by Dengeki or Famitsu, but there are some details that seems previous translators either missed or deemed unimportant (again, translations are not by Endless History, so some references may have been lost).

    - It is confirmed that Class VII only has 3 students plus Rean
    - It is also confirmed that the Northern War took place just months after Crossbell, and that Rean was pretty active on it. The government also pushed for him to join the military after he graduated, but Rean chose instead Thors second branch; maybe Osborne has eased its leash, or Rean has recovered some confidence?
    - The tax system is unified in all of Erebonia, and this has rekindled internal tensions in most region previously owned by nobles.
    - Crossbell seems to be returning to be a center of commerce and economy. This points that either there is no war with Calvard or that the conflict is very low intensity.
     

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