Trails of Cold Steel III

Discussion in 'The Legend of Heroes Series' started by Fellsmith, Dec 31, 2016.

  1. Aliseyun

    Aliseyun Member

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    Since I didn't see it here, (I would post the picture if I could find it) if you zoom in on the pink haired girl's tonfas in the promotional artwork, you can see that the words "Crossbell Police" are engraved on them.

    Also, hi Floofy and Gu4n, I'm invading this forum, you have to deal with me outside of discord too now.
     
  2. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    478
    Uhm, with the current image here, it seems the quality is not enough to see that (or at least, I didn't see it). At the same time, it wouldn't surprise me, given that it's likely Erebonia's military is the new Crossbell police (I can imagine a lot of layers of irony with this) and have access to all their old equipment.
     
  3. Jack Slade

    Jack Slade New Member

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    Marx-93 likes this.
  4. Erpy

    Erpy Active Member

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    Apparantly some new info came out that revealed a lot of stuff about what happened in Erebonia ever since the end of Cold Steel II.

    http://kiseki.wikia.com/wiki/The_Legend_of_Heroes:_Sen_no_Kiseki_III#Prologue/

    A few snippits:
    - The new male character wielding dual swords is Mueller's younger brother.
    - Osborne's been busy, having not just annexed Crossbell but North Ambria as well, tilting the empire/republic power balance in his favor.
    - He's also centralized his power, effectively abolishing the Four Great Houses.
    - And he dismissed the Vander family from their traditional position as guardians to the imperial family.
    - Rean's indeed a teacher at a Thors-like school in Western Erebonia now.
     
  5. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    How does annexing North Ambria help improve Erebonia's situation? The place would need massive investment over several years to just dig it out of the hole it's in now, much less turn it into something that contributes to Erebonia's wealth. Falcom is seriously straining the suspension of belief with the way they're portraying politics and economics......
     
  6. Yotaka

    Yotaka Well-Known Member

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    For what it's worth, North Ambria was relatively prosperous and a trading center in the north before the disaster so it's possible Osborne's goals are extremely long-term and the loss in the short run of capital needed to revitalize the place is an expense he's willing to accept. Erebonia just got a huge influx of free cash from the IBC's assets (basically, everything Calvard had invested in the country and its banking system) and control of North Ambria means getting the Northern Jaegers, who are noted to be some of the best equipped and trained among the various corps.

    True, the country's infrastructure is a mess and about half the land is useless so unless he's thinking long-term like I suggested above I'm not sure what his endgame is. He might have a long-term plan to squeeze Remiferia as well (now in a very uncomfortable position) or maybe he knows more about the Salt Pillar Incident than we do and sees some benefit in seizing the territory. We know from The 3rd that the Church interdicted the area around Haliask so it's possible there's something there that Osborne wants badly. It's equally likely that if he wasn't there already he's now right at the top of Ein Selnate's Shit List, so that just might have been a counterproductive decision either way.

    So... wait and see, pretty much.
     
  7. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    478
    We simply don't know much of North Ambria: we don't know its extension or even position. Maybe Osborne simply wants control of the North-Western trade routes, for which a single functioning port and a unified political domain is enough. In ancient times the Arabian peninsula coastline was extremely valuable despite the entire region being a desert because of its control of the Indian Ocean trade. Even in the age of Sail, the Portuguese often build forts in the middle of nowhere to control it (which is as expensive as it sounds), and everything points to them being very profitable even in the short term. Another example is the Eastern Roman Empire, which remained mostly because its excellent position allowed it to obtain enormous amounts of money from trade; even when civil order and control broke down in most regions, as long as Constantinople and some of the Greek coastal cities were safe then the Empire had enough to bounce back (and it did at least 3 times!).

    Adding more information:
    - The new uniforms are from a Thors branch school based on Reeves, on West Erebonia. It is composed of 3 classes, Class VII, VIII and IX, each specializing in something different. It accepts foreigners and sons/daughters from noble families.
    - The original Thors school has now been transformed into a full military school, and with Olivier having been expulsed from the Board of Directors it is implied to be fully controlled by Osborne. part of the reason Rean has decided to be an instructor is to keep the old Thors spirit alive. Rean is, of course, in charge of Class VII.
    - Altina has been assigned to monitor Rean constantly for this year and a half; this is the reason why she has joined the Thors branch school
    - Also, there's this new image which actually has nothing new but it looks very cool so I put it here.
     
  8. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    Gaining control of the trade routes does not require gaining control of all of North Ambria proper. If all you wanted were the trade routes, it would be cheaper to just take the few pieces of real estate you cared about and leave the rest of the country be. At this point Osborne is actively inciting every other power that exists to want to bring down Erebonia as quickly as possible. It'll be interesting to see if the church itself openly comes out against the chancellor, considering unless they consented to Ambria's annexation, there's no other way to interpret the annexation as anything other than an act of outright aggression against Arteria, considering Ambria was one of its dependencies. It's like Osborne wants all the people with the means to guarantee he stays permanently dead to gun for him. The guy is either suicidal or has major delusions of grandeur. And no, I have no confidence that he would win any sort of open fight against either the Church or Ouroboros.

    The seizure of the IBC's assets is actually not as "big" of a win as one might presume, at least over the long term. Assuming a realistic portrayal of economics, I would foresee a major inflationary crisis gripping Erebonia in the near future, along with a currency crisis gripping the rest of the continent. Having cash doesn't necessarily mean there are more things for you to buy, there's a finite limit to how much iron can be pulled out of the ground, how much land there is to build things on, etc. And if the other countries sever links with Erebonia over its aggression, or massively mark up the price of their goods in response to the increased demand, well, that cash pile starts looking a lot smaller. And considering the mistrust Erebonia has bred, were I the remaining nations I would be doing my damndest to switch over to an entirely new financial network that would see none of my remaining money touch anything Erebonia has its hands in. If Osborne's goal is to cut Erebonia off from the rest of the international community, then he's doing a damn fine job.
     
  9. Ironbrood

    Ironbrood Member

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    Osborne never stops helping neighbor countries, doesn't he? Also now that the Vanders aren't in the way anymore, he will be able to help the imperial family too (kids included)!! What a great man!!!!! *hides in a bunker*
     
  10. Zenoth

    Zenoth Member

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    34
    Im more interested in the tonfagun girl, so apparently she's a character we've seen before in the (presumably) crossbell series with two younger siblings? No character in particular comes to mind...
     
  11. Yotaka

    Yotaka Well-Known Member

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    2,489
    The translation of the Dengeki information contains a couple of errors, based on what I've seen of the original. I admit that I'm working secondhand because I haven't seen the original text but I'm getting my summary from Hokanko which has always been reliable in reporting on Falcom's games. What Kondo said about Yuuna was that 'her decision to enroll at Thors was prompted by someone from an earlier series that Rean has met'. Given that Yuuna is stated to have wanted to enter the CSPD Academy after being inspired by what the SSS did in Crossbell and that dream was shattered when the state was annexed, it's almost certain that the person referred to is Lloyd.

    Similarly, the translation claims that Rean is a master of the Eight Leaves style when the Japanese text just uses the term practitioner.
     
  12. Zenoth

    Zenoth Member

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    ah alright thanks for clearing that up, i was wandering around towns looking for families with siblings...
     
  13. nivora

    nivora Active Member

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    what i'm more surprised about is the description of rean saying he's losing control over the ogre power

    and now i dream of going to the salt pillar
     
  14. jumpyjunpeii

    jumpyjunpeii Member

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    So this is what it's like to experience the run up to a new Kiseki game. Pouring over every image, trying divine information from every scrap of news and craving more, MORE, screenshots! Good grief, this is going to be quite a ride.
     
  15. Marx-93

    Marx-93 Active Member

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    478
    Oh, sure, gaining the coastline was likely enough for Osborne, but I'm also sure he has another plan for the Salt Pillar. It's just that Osborne isn't the type of guy to go for a single objective single-mindlessly, but rather to achieve a set of things in the most efficient way possible; If taking North Ambria was a complete waste for Erebonia, I'm sure he would have found another way to get whatever he wants of the Pillar.

    And this "realistic portrayal of economics" seems to be based mostly on the current world or at least a post WWII economy, which Zemuria isn't. While Crossbell looks very contemporary, it's only been only 50 years since the equivalent of the second Industrial Revolution and the departure from a medieval economy; by this time IRL central banks had just been created and monetary policy wasn't taken seriously: we're talking about WWI here, just in the time the gold standard was starting to get abolished. Most importantly however, the Mira is an international currency exchanged at a relatively flat rate for sepith. This points to mira being a currency with intrinsic value, more akin to silver coins than modern bills (which again, considering the timeline, makes sense). The only hyperinflation with a non-local currency and intrinsic value currency I know is the one of the Spanish Empire, and that was because enormous gold reserves entered the European economy from America; in this case the IBC assets were already present and in movement. It's not a case of gaining more money that anything you can buy (like the Spanish gold), but seizing that money from a rival that was already buying things.

    Thus, for the inflationary crisis you mention to occur, all the rest of Zemuria would have to completely cut all their commercial ties with Erebonia simultaneously and most IBC assets shouldn't be Erebonian (which we know a lot of them are). Not only would the very long border between Calvard and Erebonia make this extremely hard (smuggling would be rampant, especially if encouraged by Erebonia), we don't even know how much does Calvard depend on the Crossbell Septium mines (we know foreign nations bought septium directly from the mines, and its heavily implied Calvard was one of them), or even if Liberl and Remiferia are ready to cut all their ties that easily; an inflationary crisis is bad, but a shortage of prime materials is even worse, especially in this juts-now industrial society. Even then, if Osborne just redirected all those assets to reconstruct Crossbell and North Ambria, the core Erebonian economy shouldn't be affected; in fact it can be argued a direct injection of capital is just what North Ambria needed (and what the Northern Jaegers were trying to do). And that's without even getting into that we don't know how much of those assets are liquid money and how much inversions.

    Basically, we know too little to make such sweeping statements. Like Yotaka says we should wait until we have a context.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
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  16. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    I'm sure Osborne has a plan, I just find it incredulous that seizing North Ambria somehow "strengthens" Erebonia in the short term since it can't be anything but a resource sink for years at minimum. Even with the Northern Jaegers (assuming they actually signed on), it can't be anything but a net loss for some time, since it would have been far cheaper to just buy their services and used the money left over to strengthen the regular military more. Were I Calvard, Ambria's annexation would not worry me in the short term since the act simply reinforces to all the other nations that Erebonia's an expansionist warmonger that needs to be stopped at all cost, and I can point out that Erebonia doesn't even respect the church's authority. And every mira that they pour into North Ambria to try to make it a functional region again is one more mira that they won't be spending on arms and troops, which in the short term would be very useful if I were preparing to launch a general offensive into Erebonia.

    And who exactly manages the mira? Who dictates the exchange rate for sepith? Who dictates how much mira is printed/issued each year and collects old bills/coinage to destroy to manage the actual money supply? Erebonia has just taken a massive chunk of currency out of international circulation by seizing control of the IBC, which has to cause dislocation for the other powers since they no longer have that money anymore. That much money, directly poured into the Erebonian economy, can't do anything but increase inflation. If your argument is that mira is backed by an actual asset, then it's the same situation as the Spaniards and American gold/silver. A significant portion of the incoming money would have no relation to economic activity or assets within Erebonia, it's a surplus that represents investment or assets derived from other countries, which are for all intents and purposes inaccessible to Erebonia unless they annex those countries or attempts to play nice and promise to respect the IBC's outstanding obligations, which is highly unlikely and even if promised would likely not be believed by the other powers. The first thing I would do if Erebonia made such a claim would be to transfer all of my assets out. If Erebonia let all the other powers do that, then they're no better off than they were before seizing the IBC, and if they didn't, then they have a stack of hard currency that has nowhere to go but into the Erebonian economy, which then has the risk of overheating it and creating an inflationary situation.

    We also have many examples in the pre-WWI/WWI/post-WWI period wherein countries that tried to peg their currencies to the gold standard suffering deflationary problems. In fact that entire era was a cycle of inflation/deflation across a lot of the industrializing countries across the world. We also saw quite a few European nations having major budget problems as a consequence of the arms race they found themselves engaged in, from the naval arms race between the UK and Germany to the continental arms race between basically all of the European powers. Germany prior to WWII was literally going bankrupt before it seized control of Austria and Czechoslovakia and raided their gold reserves to pay off what it owed. It then proceeded to do the same to the other nations it conquered, and once its ability to loot the other economies ended, its own economy started collapsing from the strain of war, which provides a template for what can happen to Erebonia if its expansionist policies are ever checked.

    If on the other hand the IBC held the assets in name only, and was primarily a clearing house and did not hold the mira/bullion/whatever we want to call hard assets physically in Crossbell, then Erebonia gained effectively nothing from the IBC and so has to find some other way to pay for all its expenditures.

    I'm not sure what relevance whose assets the IBC holds if Erebonia does not honor the bank's obligations. At minimum we can expect Osborne to try to expropriate whatever assets Calvard had stashed in the bank, and also blackmail any other powers that have assets to threaten them into not backing Calvard in an open confrontation. That alone would serve as an incentive for the other powers to untangle themselves from any dependency from the IBC, even if it means losing their initial assets, because by that point they're all but gone anyway since there is no expectation the IBC will actually respect any attempts to redeem them. Better to eliminate now any potential dependency to Erebonia that it will be guaranteed to use as a wedge to gain ever more influence and control over the other nation than to allow yourself to become a puppet.

    We're rapidly approaching or perhaps even passed what should be a Neville Chamberlain moment in Zemuria. The war that by all rights should be coming will not be pretty, that it hasn't ignited yet is very, very strange considering it's showing a degree of restraint that only really developed in the real world post-WWII and all the devastation that caused. Zemuria has not experienced anything nearly as traumatic, and no, the Great Collapse doesn't count, that was more akin to the fall of the Roman Empire and the Dark Ages than a WWII-style event, and neither does the War of the Lions count since that seemed to still be fought with sword and shield instead of bullets and cannons. The amount of devastation that industrialized warfare can inflict should not be so ingrained into the consciousness of Zemuria that they naturally try to veer away from it, we should be seeing the sort of nationalistic gung ho enthusiasm as we did prior to the start of WWI, especially from the likes of Erebonia and Calvard. The two should already be at war over Crossbell instead of just conducting border skirmishes along the Crossbell border.
     
  17. omgfloofy

    omgfloofy Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, I don't think the reason for the need for North Ambria is something that we can even know right now, considering the fact that we still don't even understand the nature of the disaster that happened there right now. It's very likely that the need is related to that incident.
     
  18. Ironbrood

    Ironbrood Member

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    France
    Preparations for WWII took years though (France was already rearming in 1935, and fascists used the Spanish War to experiment new tactics and equipment) and Calvard was apparently a total mess during the events of CSI and II so they need time to reorganize I think (no doubt Ouroboros will be glad to help).

    Also I totally freaked out when I saw how Osborne was dismissing the Vanders but he probably just wants to break the Olivier/Mueller bromance.
     
  19. zwabbit

    zwabbit Active Member

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    We're given the impression that there's been an arms race going on between Erebonia and Calvard for years by the point of CSI/CSII. From a force level perspective the two should both be ready to throw down. And however big a mess Calvard might have been, realistically it cannot possibly have been as bad as parts of Erebonia actively fighting a civil war against each other.
     
  20. jumpyjunpeii

    jumpyjunpeii Member

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    Considering the forces at work in this universe, between monsters, magic and all manner of ancient WMDs, I wouldn't assume anything.
     

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